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Pa Player's Paranoia/doubts

Tsotss

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If in the right thread we can't get an anserw, I'll ask here:
Are you planning add Dig to Ninetales? You know something about it?


Other ask about achievements:
Is anybody on PA who got 1 or 2 achievements after Team Rocket's Demise and before Gladiator?
 
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Dagugo

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If in the right thread we can't get an anserw, I'll ask here:
Are you planning add Dig to Ninetales? You know something about it?


Other ask about achievements:
Is anybody on PA who got 1 or 2 achievements after Team Rocket's Demise and before Gladiator?

Idk about things related to rebalance team, also I think in pl wiki there is info about them, maybe wrong numbers cuz they may change but keep the same dutie. (Check gruby mietek char, he has a lot)
 

Scarfaces

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Ok why not, i have a little question that might offend some people here, (THATS NOT MY INTENTION) but about my delete, i know that i use some word that might be offensive for some people, but i didnt had any notation or warning in my account, they dont even give me the chance to explain or apologize properly and you (DAGUGO) me, and so many other people know the true meaning of the word that i said, so i wanna know the REAL reason for my deletion if its possible, because for me it was for something else...
 

Tsotss

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Idk about things related to rebalance team, also I think in pl wiki there is info about them, maybe wrong numbers cuz they may change but keep the same dutie. (Check gruby mietek char, he has a lot)

In pl wiki isn't any info those achievement. Also Mietek doesn't have, Knightmare has more than Mietek - doesn't have (propably he asked about those 2 achievements). Ill say more - I checked a lot of players and nobody of them has those achievements.
 

medz

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As I said, u can belive in whatever u want, I'm not forcing anyone to belive, I'm just answering question that may u have, if u don't want read those things is simple, just don't open this thread, to point something, had statistic on university too, I wonder how u managed to do stadistics without knowing exactly catch rate for pokes, pointing here studies I found that statistics doesn't work for nothing, just a "may it could happen between a range"

PS: there is something called confidence interval, that may it could help you to know in wich range could u catch, but for that need catch rate.

I promised myself id not reply to this Topic anymore but I cant help hahaha

Lets take your beloved girlfriend for example. She claims she has dropped blazikenite after 7 megas and just 2 weeks after she drops her 2nd. So lets assume she killed 15 megas in total.

My beloved boyfriend Flapjack (xd) killed 240 megas over the last months and hasnt dropped any

Well that doesnt mean anything. I agree. But If you did take statistic classes you must know that the probability has no influence on the calculation If you have same chances for every event (mega Stone drop) to happen, which Is our premise.

So what are the chances of one person drop 2 Stones Out of 15 and someone else drop 0 Out of 240?

Rather simple: as we assume all events have same chance, its a combination of 15 to 2 over a combination of 255 to 2

Combination of 15 to 2 = 15!/(13!*2!) = 105
Combination of 255 to 2 = 255!/(253!*2!) = 32385

So the chances are 105/32385 = 0,00324 = 0,324%
That's something around once every 308 times. Pretty hard to believe It was just luck, huh?

Just to be clear, im not pointing my finger at you specifically, but please dont tell me its all a paranoia. This is offensive to players' cognitive capacity

Enough said, your honor. Regards
 
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Michalak

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I promised myself id not reply to this Topic anymore but I cant help hahaha

Lets take your beloved girlfriend for example. She claims she has dropped blazikenite after 7 megas and just 2 weeks after she drops her 2nd. So lets assume she killed 15 megas in total.

My beloved boyfriend Flapjack (xd) killed 240 megas over the last months and hasnt dropped any

Well that doesnt mean anything. I agree. But If you did take statistic classes you must know that the probability has no influence on the calculation If you have same chances for every event (mega Stone drop) to happen, which Is our premise.

So what are the chances of one person drop 2 Stones Out of 15 and someone else drop 0 Out of 240?

Rather simple: as we assume all events have same chance, its a combination of 15 to 2 over a combination of 255 to 2

Combination of 15 to 2 = 15!/(13!*2!) = 105
Combination of 255 to 2 = 255!/(253!*2!) = 32385

So the chances are 105/32385 = 0,00324 = 0,324%
That's something around once every 308 times. Pretty hard to believe It was just luck, huh?

Just to be clear, im not pointing my finger at you specifically, but please dont tell me its all a paranoia. This is offensive to players' cognitive capacity

Enough said, your honor. Regards

I am deeply sorry, but as u said there is always the same chance that mega stone will drop, after mega dies.
Suming up, your accusation comes from pain in the ass, because someone had more luck. Come on guys, it is just a game, you can't take it that seriously xD
 

Dagugo

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Believing that something is manipulated when it isn't, that is called paranoia, but it doesn't mean is an insult. To be clear, I made this on my own as I pointed in main post, if someone feels insulted is by me, not from staff.

@medz

As far I know, there is another player that looted two mega stones more than a year ago (I heared it) so someone else doing the same isn't a surprise for me, glad that it was her? Ofc

PAd doesnt have any kind of exhaust/restriction that someone can't get the same thing in a short period of time, it means that someone have two megas/ catch two aeros in a row is possible (giving other example)

Doing statistics just give you one idea of what could happen, not give u the right number of when it will happen.

i would like to know, wich could be the reason for one admin giving those things to her because as CM I can't manipulate the loot and as everyone can check in pics, she looted. As i say everywhere, why giving it to her instead of me? Donator? She isn't, flapjack was and it didn't give the benefit to loot them, playing with me? Then why just not giving to me, or why raissa friends for example didn't loot them? The answer is simple doesn't matter the fact that ppl can't understand/don't want to belive, it was luck, she was in the right moment of life to loot them.

Edit: there is something that ppl have to understand, if there is a chance that something happen it means it could happen, doesn't matter how small is the chance, if there is one oportunity it is possible, the chances never are 0.
 
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Raissa

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Mega Bosses are having loot by script, not by monster's file as usual. The only two that could edit it are Jano and Hohenheim. I advice you not to acusse them of manipulation in loot especially for this girl.

here's the screenshot of log
msydhSI.png


q9VR0DO.png
 

huberto

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I'm not sure if there was anyone who looted 2 stones but if yes, I'm it was in the first month when mega system was implemented and only because someone designing bosses gave them chance to drop mega evo stone equal to plate. It was fixed +/- 1 month later and since this "fix" nobody ever looted stone in next 17 month. Nobody but Lany. I'm not trying to say that someone manipulated loot rates for her, or someone gave her stone. I don't know her and I don't care if she looted it in a fair way or not. But... you studied statistics, you should see how it looks and at least try to understand why people are talking about it in this way. Nobody looted mega stone in 17 months.
17 months - approx 510 days
Bosses are spawning in less than 3 days, each of them.
510/3 =170
There are 4 bosses spawning on 3 different worlds
170*3*4 = over 2000 bosses killed.
Count by yourself a chance to loot 2 stones out of 2000 tries and then count a chance of 1 person looting 2 stones in this low amount of tries.
Again, I'm not judging but this "luck" factor is kinda insane don't you think?
 

Dagugo

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In that case we should put an exhaust in respawns/loots of time, and wait for ppl calculating how much time left for next catch/loot and while that all respawns empty cuz no sence to be there if I wont get anything, there are ppl that loot the tm in some mins from task about 12k pokes, is a bigger reward ofc, but is the same fact.
 

paralyzer776

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Dag, what do you think about adding few more CLoned Waters to the beach on C Island? The beach is huge..
 

Dagugo

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Dag, what do you think about adding few more CLoned Waters to the beach on C Island? The beach is huge..

Since is a small place for me it is fine as it is, but if would be bigger that u have to walk could have more, also toise is much more expensive than zard in npc (if I'm not wrong) this would make it change
 

medz

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I'm not sure if there was anyone who looted 2 stones but if yes, I'm it was in the first month when mega system was implemented and only because someone designing bosses gave them chance to drop mega evo stone equal to plate. It was fixed +/- 1 month later and since this "fix" nobody ever looted stone in next 17 month. Nobody but Lany. I'm not trying to say that someone manipulated loot rates for her, or someone gave her stone. I don't know her and I don't care if she looted it in a fair way or not. But... you studied statistics, you should see how it looks and at least try to understand why people are talking about it in this way. Nobody looted mega stone in 17 months.
17 months - approx 510 days
Bosses are spawning in less than 3 days, each of them.
510/3 =170
There are 4 bosses spawning on 3 different worlds
170*3*4 = over 2000 bosses killed.
Count by yourself a chance to loot 2 stones out of 2000 tries and then count a chance of 1 person looting 2 stones in this low amount of tries.
Again, I'm not judging but this "luck" factor is kinda insane don't you think?

Bro, check the math I did. For one guy not looting in 240 and she looting 2 in 15 the chances are 0,324%! Imagine for 2000 (even tho I dont know if you can do this cause if im not mistaken loot rate in platinum is doubled). Thats why I said this topic is pointless in the first place. No matter how little are the chances, there are and then they will use this bullshit argument of luck.

Mega Bosses are having loot by script, not by monster's file as usual. The only two that could edit it are Jano and Hohenheim. I advice you not to acusse them of manipulation in loot especially for this girl.

here's the screenshot of log
msydhSI.png


q9VR0DO.png

If you read carefully you will see I said I wasnt pointing my finger towards no one. Im not stupid to accuse someone without proofs. Im just throwing numbers and saying they show an odd situation. If you dont care enough to investigation thats ok, I wouldnt be surprised. Just cause Im not staff doesnt mean I dont know things

O mal do malandro é achar que todo mundo é otário
 

Celsonz

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As i said tooooooo many surprising things done in short time and we dont talk about luck xd
 

Dagugo

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So pointing all this everything out, what is the problem if this happened in similar days? That did t happen to you?
 

paralyzer776

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Since is a small place for me it is fine as it is, but if would be bigger that u have to walk could have more, also toise is much more expensive than zard in npc (if I'm not wrong) this would make it change

It isn't a small place, it is easily the same size as Fires or slightly bigger. NPC price of Zard is 120k and flaerons 40k where Toise is 200k and Vapo 50k. WE could add 1 of each as I said for waters and make Toise 180k and Vapo should stay as it is.

+ adding a spawn isn't really that time consuming so I think we could do that.
 
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