I always believed it worked until today. Was talking to Silver and finally decided to make the math.
First of all i'll put conditions in which i made theses calculations:
- Only extra chance considered (regular rate * ball multiplier factor ignored)
- 1st event is "throw the 2501st UB"
- Ignore all chances from extra chance before reaching full extra chance (balls 1-2499)
If you already threw 2500 UB that means you have 0,5% extra chance. 0,5% = 0,005
So chances of NOT CATCHING is 0,995 (once again, disconsider all other chances and previous events)
Lets say my experiment will be throwing 1k UB (i'll have 3.5k UB at the end)
Chances of NOT CATCHING a poke after these 1k would be
0,995^1000 (in other words, the event NOT CATCHING would have to happen 1000 times in a row, and this is it probability of happening)
that gives us 0,00665~, or 0,66%, or once every 150 times. Im pretty sure it (throwing 3500 UB in a poke and not catching it) happens more than once every 150 times (again, this frequency should be even smaller if we consider first 2500 balls and regular chances)