Ranking of Balls Fail :v

[Arcanist Karl]

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Funny

"(normal form)".
Regular PAd day...

 

[Fernands]

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hi god, it's me again

 

[rhess]

Not a really hard Pokemon but its boring
Used 4800 ultra balls on Meltan.

 

[jansza]

14:20 Used 112 pokeballs, 300 great balls, 160 super balls, 17105 ultra balls, 2 rocket balls, 1 sport ball, 2 moon balls on Absol.


14:21 Used 2 great balls, 12030 ultra balls, 705 rocket balls, 2 heavy balls, 22 aerial balls, 688 cloned balls, 2 crystal balls, 1 fast ball on Cloned Dragonair.

 

[Zizustyle-Diamond]

F

 

[demzpacito]

500 balls and counting

700

 

[Fernands]

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hi god, it's me again

updating daily suffering
20k o//

 

[Fernands]

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updating daily suffering
20k o//

25k

 

[Naneviil]

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25 mil

estamos no mesmo barco meu amigo

 

[Direns]

 

[jonythan]

Somebody can beat my record? hahahah

 

[marr]

Somebody can beat my record? hahahah

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how many absolite's fragments? xd

 

[jonythan]

how many absolite's fragments? xd

16

 

[Pan BaginSky]

700

Ohh Good for me catch in 9ub

 

[Direns]

Big if true

 

[Kebakian Palladin]

well, it is what it is

 

[demzpacito]

Big if true

Let's apply some basic statistics: Assuming all balls u threw were ubs and u used catch charm III and catch charm held since the beginning for the sake of simplification, u get a binomial distribution (when u only have 2 possible outcomes - catch or no catch) with success rate p = 0,0325%

A calculation u can make from this data is what are the chances of catching at least one Aero after N balls thrown. And how do we calculate that? Easy, u just calculate the chances of not catching any Aero (which is simple) and subract from 100%, since they are complementary (after N balls u can either have caught 0 Aeros or have caught at least 1 Aero). Makes sense?

The chances of not catching any Aero, as I said, are simple to calculate: u have success rate p = 0,0325%. So u have fail rate q = 1 - p = 99,9675% (remember, its binomial distribution, so u only have 2 complementary outcomes). So the chance of not catching any Aero after, lets say, 5000 balls, means the failure event has to happen 5000 times in a row. The chances of that happenning is 99,9675%^5000 = 19,68%. That means the chance of having caught at least 1 Aero is 100 - 19,68 = 80,32%. So it's not guaranteed that u will catch Aero within 5k balls, but it's expected that u catch at least 1 of them 4 times every 5 times u throw 5k balls. All events are independent (meaning the outcome of one throw doesnt affect the chance of the next, but its important to have clear in mind the difference between the chance of catching and the chance of having caught after N attempts, because the latter is the one that can actually tell us if something doesnt seem right.

Now calculating for 15000 balls thrown: 99,9675%^15000 = 0,76% chance of not having caught any Aero. That means if u threw 15k UBs with catch charm III and catch charm held it means that by then u have more than 99% chance of having caught at least one Aero. What we actually see is many people taking more than that to catch (like me, Hound and Pyrkosz), not to mention other pokes like Tapus and Elder Zard (their base rate is lower than Aero's but the difference is negligible when compared to catch charm III - if u dont trust me just do the math).

It's very frustrating specially because we dont get any serious answer from staff, Jano came to my LT to say I was crying when I explained with every word that I was retiring from game and that was the reason. That leads us to only 2 different paths: either we start believing the mechanics of catch are not working properly or we create conspiracy theories/paranoia about catch rates being manipulated by admins for them to do what they want (sell catchs, block some players from catching a poke to keep him engaged on game, whatever else). To be honest I dont give a shit if they sell catchs, it's their game, they profit from it however they want. But it shouldn't affect my effort to go and catch pokes.

I hope we can eventually get some serious answer from admins, even if it is to prove me wrong. I'll be the first to admit and apologize if so. But as long as they remain growling about it, I'll be still speaking out

 

[kaitoo]

when you bother the owner of the game and assume the sad consequences ;/ Karma
cuando molestas al dueño del juego y asumes las concecuencias sad ;/ Karma

kaito diamond

 

[Maiquel Linck]

And the little horse doesn't like me. xd

20:23 Used 37 ultra balls, 4646 rocket balls, 644 premier balls, 31 sport balls, 1 crystal ball on Shiny Ponyta (Shiny Form).

 

[Direns]

271 keys left​